November 2009
Swine flu planning guidance reviewed
The UK Government's Department of Health and Cabinet Office has reviewed the swine flu planning assumptions documents.
The key points are made in the report are based upon new information derived from the recent experience of swine flu cases:-
- The additional information now available confirms earlier guidance that children under 16 are significantly more susceptible to the virus, and up to 30% may fall ill during this second wave
- The worst-case clinical attack rate across the population as a whole has now been reduced from 30% to 12% between now and the end of the normal flu season. This means that in the peak week of the pandemic up to 1.5 million people may become ill and 5% of people could be absent from work. It should be noted that this is in addition to normal winter absence rates
- Although the new information from experience of the virus to date suggests that we may not see a concentrated second peak, it is vital to remain prepared for the full range of possibilities. Modellers anticipate that swine flu may peak again between the end of October and mid November
- Similarly, as was seen in summer 2009, different areas of the country may experience significant pressures resulting from swine flu at different times. Some local areas may experience substantially higher peaks than the national averages suggest
The full guidance can be found at:- http://www.viaticusltd.co.uk/pdf/DoH Pandemic planning guidance 221009.pdf
